Postmortem.
Every signal is checked against what actually happened — did the price move in the direction the thesis predicted? Pillars whose reads consistently prove out earn more weight in future scoring; those that don't get a higher bar to clear before they influence decisions.
| Pillar | Threshold | 60d accuracy | Reads | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | 0.64 | 61.2% | 49 | 2026-11-01 |
| P2 | 0.70 | — | 0 | 2026-05-04 |
| P3 | 0.51 | 88.0% | 25 | 2026-11-01 |
| P4 | 0.62 | 65.1% | 43 | 2026-11-01 |
| P5 | 0.64 | 61.0% | 59 | 2026-11-01 |
Pillars with fewer than 20 scored reads keep the default threshold. Thresholds recalibrate on the 1st of each month.
NOWP1 · positive
realized -25.3% · scored 2026-10-16
ORCLP1 · positive
realized -7.0% · scored 2026-10-16
ORCLP5 · positive
realized -6.6% · scored 2026-10-15
SNOWP5 · positive
realized -6.3% · scored 2026-10-15
ORCLP1 · positive
realized -6.6% · scored 2026-10-15
APPN— · neutral
realized +26.7% · read was neutral · scored 2026-10-14
APPN— · neutral
realized +18.4% · read was neutral · scored 2026-10-16
APPN— · neutral
realized +18.4% · read was neutral · scored 2026-10-16
APPN— · neutral
realized +18.4% · read was neutral · scored 2026-10-16
APPN— · neutral
realized +15.0% · read was neutral · scored 2026-10-13
TP
0
FP
741
Neutral hit
0
Neutral miss
0
Insufficient
259
Each signal is evaluated at three horizons: 5 days, 20 days, and 90 days. The 5-day window drives threshold recalibration.